fix(memory): don't settle a decision before its holding window trades

- _fetch_returns settled on min(holding_days, available), so a rerun a day or
  two after a decision reflected on a 1-2 day partial return as if final
- require the full holding window in both the stock and benchmark series before
  resolving; otherwise leave the entry pending to retry next run
- this also makes the #1251 resolution date the full-window date, not a partial
  bar's #1169

tests/test_memory_log.py

@@ -58,7 +58,7 @@ def _price_df(prices, start="2026-01-05"):
     """Minimal DataFrame matching yfinance .history() output shape.
 
     Uses a DatetimeIndex like real yfinance output, so resolution-date
-    extraction (stock.index[actual_days]) works (#1251).
+    extraction (stock.index[holding_days]) works (#1251).
     """
     idx = pd.date_range(start=start, periods=len(prices), freq="D")
     return pd.DataFrame({"Close": prices}, index=idx)
@@ -529,9 +529,10 @@ class TestDeferredReflection:
         assert (raw, alpha, days, resolved) == (None, None, None, None)
 
     def test_fetch_returns_spy_shorter_than_stock(self):
-        """SPY having fewer rows than the stock must not raise IndexError."""
-        stock_prices = [100.0, 102.0, 104.0, 103.0, 105.0, 106.0]
-        spy_prices   = [400.0, 402.0, 403.0]
+        """SPY having fewer rows than the stock (but still a full window) must
+        not raise IndexError."""
+        stock_prices = [100.0, 102.0, 104.0, 103.0, 105.0, 106.0, 107.0, 108.0]  # 8 rows
+        spy_prices   = [400.0, 402.0, 403.0, 405.0, 406.0, 407.0]                # 6 rows
         mock_graph = MagicMock(spec=TradingAgentsGraph)
         with patch("yfinance.Ticker") as mock_ticker_cls:
             def _make_ticker(sym):
@@ -540,9 +541,25 @@ class TestDeferredReflection:
                 return m
             mock_ticker_cls.side_effect = _make_ticker
             raw, alpha, days, resolved = TradingAgentsGraph._fetch_returns(mock_graph, "NVDA", "2026-01-05")
-        assert raw is not None and alpha is not None and days is not None
-        assert days == 2
-        assert resolved == "2026-01-07"  # 2 sessions after the trade date
+        assert raw is not None and alpha is not None
+        assert days == 5  # full holding window used for both series
+        assert resolved == "2026-01-10"
+
+    def test_fetch_returns_incomplete_window_stays_pending(self):
+        """#1169: a rerun before the full holding window has traded returns
+        unavailable (all-None) so the entry stays pending, rather than settling
+        on a premature partial return."""
+        stock_prices = [100.0, 102.0, 104.0]  # only 3 rows; holding window is 5
+        spy_prices   = [400.0, 402.0, 404.0]
+        mock_graph = MagicMock(spec=TradingAgentsGraph)
+        with patch("yfinance.Ticker") as mock_ticker_cls:
+            def _make_ticker(sym):
+                m = MagicMock()
+                m.history.return_value = _price_df(spy_prices if sym == "SPY" else stock_prices)
+                return m
+            mock_ticker_cls.side_effect = _make_ticker
+            result = TradingAgentsGraph._fetch_returns(mock_graph, "NVDA", "2026-01-05")
+        assert result == (None, None, None, None)
 
     # TradingAgentsGraph._resolve_benchmark — picks index for alpha calc
 
@@ -673,6 +690,20 @@ class TestDeferredReflection:
         assert "+5.0%" in entries[0]["raw"]
         assert "+2.0%" in entries[0]["alpha"]
 
+    def test_resolve_leaves_premature_entry_pending(self, tmp_path):
+        """#1169: when the outcome can't be settled yet (_fetch_returns None),
+        the entry stays pending and the reflector is never called."""
+        log = make_log(tmp_path)
+        log.store_decision("NVDA", "2026-01-05", DECISION_BUY)
+        mock_reflector = MagicMock()
+        mock_graph = MagicMock(spec=TradingAgentsGraph)
+        mock_graph.memory_log = log
+        mock_graph.reflector = mock_reflector
+        mock_graph._fetch_returns = MagicMock(return_value=(None, None, None, None))
+        TradingAgentsGraph._resolve_pending_entries(mock_graph, "NVDA")
+        assert len(log.get_pending_entries()) == 1  # still pending
+        mock_reflector.reflect_on_final_decision.assert_not_called()
+
 
 # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 # Portfolio Manager injection: past_context in state and prompt

tradingagents/graph/trading_graph.py

@@ -278,10 +278,11 @@ class TradingAgentsGraph:
 
         ``benchmark`` is the index used as the alpha baseline (resolved by the
         caller via ``_resolve_benchmark``). Returns ``(raw_return, alpha_return,
-        actual_holding_days, resolution_date)`` — where ``resolution_date`` is
-        the date of the last price bar used, i.e. when the outcome became known
-        (#1251) — or ``(None, None, None, None)`` if price data is unavailable
-        (too recent, delisted, or network error).
+        holding_days, resolution_date)`` — where ``resolution_date`` is the date
+        of the last price bar used, i.e. when the outcome became known (#1251) —
+        or ``(None, None, None, None)`` when the outcome cannot be settled yet:
+        the full holding window has not traded (#1169), or the symbol is delisted
+        or unreachable.
         """
         from tradingagents.dataflows.symbol_utils import normalize_symbol
 
@@ -296,23 +297,25 @@ class TradingAgentsGraph:
             stock = yf.Ticker(normalize_symbol(ticker)).history(start=trade_date, end=end_str)
             bench = yf.Ticker(benchmark).history(start=trade_date, end=end_str)
 
-            if len(stock) < 2 or len(bench) < 2:
+            # Require the full holding window in both series. A rerun before it
+            # has traded leaves the entry pending to retry next run, rather than
+            # settling on a premature partial return (#1169).
+            if len(stock) <= holding_days or len(bench) <= holding_days:
                 return None, None, None, None
 
-            actual_days = min(holding_days, len(stock) - 1, len(bench) - 1)
             raw = float(
-                (stock["Close"].iloc[actual_days] - stock["Close"].iloc[0])
+                (stock["Close"].iloc[holding_days] - stock["Close"].iloc[0])
                 / stock["Close"].iloc[0]
             )
             bench_ret = float(
-                (bench["Close"].iloc[actual_days] - bench["Close"].iloc[0])
+                (bench["Close"].iloc[holding_days] - bench["Close"].iloc[0])
                 / bench["Close"].iloc[0]
             )
             alpha = raw - bench_ret
             # The date of the last price bar used is when this outcome became
             # known — the point-in-time cutoff for injecting the lesson (#1251).
-            resolution_date = stock.index[actual_days].strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
-            return raw, alpha, actual_days, resolution_date
+            resolution_date = stock.index[holding_days].strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
+            return raw, alpha, holding_days, resolution_date
         except Exception as e:
             logger.warning(
                 "Could not resolve outcome for %s on %s vs %s (will retry next run): %s",