Merge pull request #1285 from TauricResearch/v0.4.1

Post-v0.4.0 fixes: FRED vintage, Reddit 429, debate neutrality, feed bound
This commit is contained in:
Yijia Xiao
2026-09-01 00:38:45 -05:00
committed by GitHub
7 changed files with 149 additions and 31 deletions

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@@ -151,22 +151,46 @@ class FredFormattingTests(unittest.TestCase):
self.assertEqual(obs_params["observation_start"], "2025-07-02") # 90d back
def test_requests_pin_the_data_vintage(self):
# #1275: both the metadata and observations requests must set
# realtime_start=realtime_end=curr_date, or FRED serves the latest
# revision and revision-prone series leak future information.
# #1275: both the metadata and observations requests must pin the vintage
# to curr_date (clamped to FRED's today), or FRED serves the latest
# revision and revision-prone series leak future information. A past
# curr_date sits below FRED's today, so it pins through unchanged.
captured = {}
def _capture(path, params):
captured[path] = params
return _META if path == "series" else _OBS
with mock.patch.object(fred, "_request", side_effect=_capture):
with mock.patch.object(fred, "_fred_today", return_value="2026-01-01"), \
mock.patch.object(fred, "_request", side_effect=_capture):
fred.get_macro_data("cpi", "2025-09-30", 90)
for path in ("series", "series/observations"):
self.assertEqual(captured[path]["realtime_start"], "2025-09-30", path)
self.assertEqual(captured[path]["realtime_end"], "2025-09-30", path)
def test_future_curr_date_clamps_vintage_to_fred_today(self):
# #1275 regression: on a live run curr_date is the caller's LOCAL date,
# which can be a day ahead of FRED's US-Central clock. Pinning the vintage
# to that future date 400s, and the routing layer then drops macro data
# silently. The pin must clamp to FRED's today; the observation window
# (future bars can't exist yet) stays at curr_date.
captured = {}
def _capture(path, params):
captured[path] = params
return _META if path == "series" else _OBS
with mock.patch.object(fred, "_fred_today", return_value="2026-08-31"), \
mock.patch.object(fred, "_request", side_effect=_capture):
fred.get_macro_data("cpi", "2026-09-01", 90) # local a day ahead of Chicago
for path in ("series", "series/observations"):
self.assertEqual(captured[path]["realtime_start"], "2026-08-31", path)
self.assertEqual(captured[path]["realtime_end"], "2026-08-31", path)
# the observation window still tracks curr_date, not the clamped vintage
self.assertEqual(captured["series/observations"]["observation_end"], "2026-09-01")
@pytest.mark.unit
class FredRoutingTests(unittest.TestCase):

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@@ -36,8 +36,9 @@ def _resp(read_fn):
def __exit__(self_inner, *a):
return False
def read(self_inner):
return read_fn()
def read(self_inner, size=-1):
data = read_fn()
return data if size is None or size < 0 else data[:size]
return _Resp()
@@ -147,6 +148,26 @@ class TestRss429Backoff:
reddit._fetch_subreddit_rss("NVDA", "stocks", 5, 5.0)
slept.assert_called_once_with(12.0)
def test_retry_after_zero_is_honoured_not_treated_as_absent(self):
# A valid "Retry-After: 0" means retry at once; it must not fall through
# to the fallback wait (the earlier `or 5.0` bug turned 0 into 5s).
err = HTTPError("url", 429, "Too Many Requests", {"Retry-After": "0"}, None)
with patch.object(reddit, "urlopen", side_effect=[err, _atom_resp()]), \
patch.object(reddit.time, "sleep") as slept:
reddit._fetch_subreddit_rss("NVDA", "stocks", 5, 5.0)
slept.assert_called_once_with(0.0)
def test_headerless_429_fallback_is_jittered(self):
# No Retry-After -> our own ~5s fallback, jittered so concurrent runs
# don't retry in lockstep (kept within a tight band).
err = HTTPError("url", 429, "Too Many Requests", {}, None)
with patch.object(reddit, "urlopen", side_effect=[err, _atom_resp()]), \
patch.object(reddit.time, "sleep") as slept:
reddit._fetch_subreddit_rss("NVDA", "stocks", 5, 5.0)
slept.assert_called_once()
(wait,), _ = slept.call_args
assert 4.0 <= wait <= 6.0 # 5s +/-20% jitter
@pytest.mark.unit
class TestChunkedTransferErrorsHandled:
@@ -163,6 +184,14 @@ class TestChunkedTransferErrorsHandled:
reddit._fetch_subreddit_json("NVDA", "stocks", 5, 5.0)
rss.assert_called_once()
def test_oversized_rss_feed_is_refused_not_parsed(self):
# A hostile/misbehaving endpoint streaming an unbounded body must not be
# read into memory before parsing; overflow degrades to an empty feed.
big = _resp(lambda: b"x" * 100)
with patch.object(reddit, "_MAX_FEED_BYTES", 10), \
patch.object(reddit, "urlopen", return_value=big):
assert reddit._fetch_subreddit_rss("NVDA", "stocks", 5, 5.0) == []
@pytest.mark.unit
class TestFormatterHandlesRssPosts:

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@@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ def create_portfolio_manager(llm):
---
Be decisive and ground every conclusion in specific evidence from the analysts.
Ground every conclusion in specific evidence from the analysts. Commit to a directional call only when the evidence clearly supports one; choose Hold when the case is balanced, materially conflicting, ambiguous, or insufficient to justify changing exposure, rather than forcing a direction to appear decisive. Weigh the analysts on their merits, independent of speaking order.
{NO_EXTERNAL_TOOLS}{get_language_instruction()}"""

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@@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ def create_research_manager(llm):
- **Underweight**: Cautious view; recommend trimming exposure
- **Sell**: Strong conviction in the bear thesis; recommend exiting or avoiding the position
Commit to a clear stance whenever the debate's strongest arguments warrant one; reserve Hold for situations where the evidence on both sides is genuinely balanced.
Commit to a directional stance only when the debate's strongest arguments clearly warrant one. Choose Hold when the evidence is balanced, materially conflicting, ambiguous, or insufficient to justify changing exposure; do not manufacture a direction merely to appear decisive. Weigh the bull and bear cases on their merits, independent of which side spoke first or last.
---

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@@ -82,9 +82,11 @@ class ResearchPlan(BaseModel):
recommendation: PortfolioRating = Field(
description=(
"The investment recommendation. Exactly one of Buy / Overweight / "
"Hold / Underweight / Sell. Reserve Hold for situations where the "
"evidence on both sides is genuinely balanced; otherwise commit to "
"the side with the stronger arguments."
"Hold / Underweight / Sell. Choose Hold when the evidence is "
"balanced, materially conflicting, ambiguous, or insufficient to "
"justify changing exposure; otherwise commit to the side with the "
"clearly stronger arguments. Do not pick a direction merely to be "
"decisive."
),
)
rationale: str = Field(
@@ -197,7 +199,10 @@ class PortfolioDecision(BaseModel):
rating: PortfolioRating = Field(
description=(
"The final position rating. Exactly one of Buy / Overweight / Hold / "
"Underweight / Sell, picked based on the analysts' debate."
"Underweight / Sell, picked based on the analysts' debate. Choose "
"Hold when the case is balanced, materially conflicting, ambiguous, "
"or insufficient to justify changing exposure, rather than forcing a "
"direction to appear decisive."
),
)
executive_summary: str = Field(

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@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ import logging
import os
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
import pytz
import requests
from .errors import VendorNotConfiguredError
@@ -20,6 +21,12 @@ logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
FRED_API_BASE = "https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred"
# FRED's realtime clock runs on US Central (St. Louis Fed). It rejects a
# realtime date in its own future with a 400, so the vintage pin is clamped to
# this rather than the caller's local date (#1275). pytz (already a dependency)
# bundles its own tz database, so this works where system tzdata is absent.
FRED_TZ = pytz.timezone("America/Chicago")
# Network timeout (seconds) so a stalled request can't hang the agents,
# mirroring the Alpha Vantage client.
REQUEST_TIMEOUT = 30
@@ -115,6 +122,16 @@ def _resolve_series_id(indicator: str) -> str:
return candidate
def _fred_today() -> str:
"""FRED's current calendar date (US Central) as ``yyyy-mm-dd``.
The vintage pin is clamped to this: FRED rejects a ``realtime_start`` after
its own today with a 400, and ``curr_date`` on a live run comes from the
caller's local clock, which can already be tomorrow in Chicago.
"""
return datetime.now(FRED_TZ).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
def _request(path: str, params: dict) -> dict:
"""GET a FRED endpoint, surfacing FRED's JSON error body on a bad request."""
api_params = {**params, "api_key": get_api_key(), "file_type": "json"}
@@ -144,11 +161,11 @@ def get_macro_data(
indicator: A friendly alias (e.g. "cpi", "unemployment", "10y_treasury")
or a raw FRED series ID (e.g. "CPIAUCSL", "DGS10").
curr_date: The as-of date (yyyy-mm-dd). It bounds the observation window
AND pins the data vintage: FRED is queried with
``realtime_start = realtime_end = curr_date`` so a historical run sees
the values that were actually published by that date, not later
revisions. Without this, revision-prone series (CPI, GDP, ...) would
leak future information into a backtest (#1275).
AND pins the data vintage: FRED is queried with the realtime bounds
set to ``curr_date`` (clamped to FRED's own today) so a historical
run sees the values that were actually published by that date, not
later revisions. Without this, revision-prone series (CPI, GDP, ...)
would leak future information into a backtest (#1275).
look_back_days: Trailing window length; ``None`` uses DEFAULT_LOOKBACK_DAYS.
Returns:
@@ -161,11 +178,16 @@ def get_macro_data(
end_dt = datetime.strptime(curr_date, "%Y-%m-%d")
start_date = (end_dt - timedelta(days=look_back_days)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
# Pin the data vintage to curr_date. FRED defaults both realtime bounds to
# today, which serves the LATEST revision of every observation; a single-day
# realtime interval asks for the values known as of curr_date instead. This
# is applied to both the metadata and observations requests (#1275).
realtime = {"realtime_start": curr_date, "realtime_end": curr_date}
# Pin the data vintage. FRED defaults both realtime bounds to today, serving
# the LATEST revision of every observation; a single-day realtime interval
# asks for the values known as of the pin instead, on both the metadata and
# observations requests (#1275). Clamp to FRED's today: on a live run
# curr_date is the caller's local date, which can be a day ahead of Chicago,
# and a realtime date in FRED's future 400s -> the routing layer would then
# drop macro data silently. A past curr_date is unaffected, so historical
# point-in-time behaviour is preserved.
pit = min(curr_date, _fred_today())
realtime = {"realtime_start": pit, "realtime_end": pit}
# Invalid LLM-supplied indicator: return guidance rather than raising, so a
# bad argument doesn't abort the run (the routing layer also degrades macro
@@ -215,8 +237,10 @@ def get_macro_data(
if not points:
return header + (
f"\nNo observations for {series_id} in this window. The series may "
f"report less frequently than the window length; widen look_back_days."
f"\nNo observations for {series_id} in this window at the {pit} "
f"vintage. The series may report less frequently than the window "
f"(try a longer look_back_days), or have no vintage published by "
f"then (unpublished as of {pit}, or before ALFRED coverage begins)."
)
first_date, first_val = points[0]

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@@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ import html
import http.client
import json
import logging
import random
import re
import time
import xml.etree.ElementTree as ET
@@ -101,15 +102,47 @@ def _strip_html(content: str) -> str:
return " ".join(html.unescape(text).split())
# Headerless-429 backoff when Reddit gives no Retry-After. Jittered so several
# analyses sharing an IP don't retry in lockstep and re-collide on the limit.
_RETRY_FALLBACK_SECONDS = 5.0
def _jitter(seconds: float, frac: float = 0.2) -> float:
"""Return ``seconds`` with +/-``frac`` random jitter, to desynchronize
concurrent runs pacing against the same per-IP limit."""
return seconds * (1.0 + random.uniform(-frac, frac))
def _retry_after_seconds(exc: HTTPError) -> float | None:
"""Seconds to wait from a 429's ``Retry-After`` header, capped at 30s."""
"""Seconds to wait from a 429's ``Retry-After`` header, capped at 30s.
Returns ``None`` only when the header is absent or unparseable; a valid
``Retry-After: 0`` returns ``0.0`` (retry at once), not ``None``.
"""
try:
val = exc.headers.get("Retry-After") if getattr(exc, "headers", None) else None
return min(float(val), 30.0) if val else None
return min(float(val), 30.0) if val is not None else None
except (ValueError, TypeError, AttributeError):
return None
# Reddit search feeds are small (a page of results); cap the read so a
# compromised or misbehaving endpoint can't stream an unbounded body into
# memory before we parse it. Overflow raises http.client.HTTPException, which
# both fetch paths already treat as a failed fetch (degrade to empty / RSS).
_MAX_FEED_BYTES = 5 * 1024 * 1024
def _read_capped(resp) -> bytes:
"""Read a response body bounded to ``_MAX_FEED_BYTES``, raising on overflow."""
data = resp.read(_MAX_FEED_BYTES + 1)
if len(data) > _MAX_FEED_BYTES:
raise http.client.HTTPException(
f"Reddit feed exceeded {_MAX_FEED_BYTES} bytes; refusing to parse"
)
return data
def _fetch_subreddit_rss(
ticker: str,
sub: str,
@@ -128,10 +161,13 @@ def _fetch_subreddit_rss(
req = Request(url, headers={"User-Agent": _UA})
try:
with urlopen(req, timeout=timeout) as resp:
root = ET.fromstring(resp.read())
root = ET.fromstring(_read_capped(resp))
except HTTPError as exc:
if exc.code == 429 and _retry:
wait = _retry_after_seconds(exc) or 5.0
# Honour a server-supplied Retry-After exactly (including 0); jitter
# only our own fallback so concurrent runs don't retry in lockstep.
retry_after = _retry_after_seconds(exc)
wait = retry_after if retry_after is not None else _jitter(_RETRY_FALLBACK_SECONDS)
logger.warning(
"Reddit RSS 429 for r/%s · %s — backing off %.1fs then retrying once",
sub, ticker, wait,
@@ -182,7 +218,7 @@ def _fetch_subreddit_json(
req = Request(url, headers={"User-Agent": _UA, "Accept": "application/json"})
try:
with urlopen(req, timeout=timeout) as resp:
payload = json.loads(resp.read())
payload = json.loads(_read_capped(resp))
children = (payload.get("data") or {}).get("children") or []
return [c.get("data", {}) for c in children if isinstance(c, dict)]
except (OSError, http.client.HTTPException, json.JSONDecodeError) as exc:
@@ -234,8 +270,8 @@ def fetch_reddit_posts(
blocks = []
total_posts = 0
for i, sub in enumerate(subreddits):
if i > 0:
time.sleep(inter_request_delay)
if i > 0 and inter_request_delay:
time.sleep(_jitter(inter_request_delay))
posts = _within_window(_fetch_subreddit(ticker, sub, limit_per_sub, timeout),
start_date, end_date)
total_posts += len(posts)