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https://github.com/TauricResearch/TradingAgents.git
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Surface live, market-implied probabilities for forward-looking events (Fed decisions, recession, elections, geopolitics, crypto) to the news analyst via a new get_prediction_markets tool and a prediction_markets vendor category. Backed by Polymarket's public Gamma API (no key). Results are filtered to open, forward-looking markets (closed and past-dated events excluded), ranked by traded volume, and rendered with implied probability, volume, resolution date, and the recent move. External errors degrade to a clear unavailable message rather than interrupting the analyst.
130 lines
5.0 KiB
Python
130 lines
5.0 KiB
Python
"""Polymarket prediction-market vendor: forward-looking filtering, volume
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ranking, formatting, graceful degradation, and router integration.
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All API access is mocked, so these run without a network connection.
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"""
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import copy
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import unittest
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from unittest import mock
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import pytest
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import requests
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import tradingagents.dataflows.config as config_module
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import tradingagents.default_config as default_config
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from tradingagents.dataflows import interface, polymarket
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from tradingagents.dataflows.config import set_config
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def _market(question, prob, *, volume, end_date, closed=False, wk=None):
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return {
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"question": question,
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"outcomes": '["Yes", "No"]',
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"outcomePrices": f'["{prob}", "{round(1 - prob, 4)}"]',
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"volumeNum": volume,
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"endDate": end_date,
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"closed": closed,
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"oneWeekPriceChange": wk,
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}
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# One event with a mix: a high-volume open market, a closed one, a past-dated
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# one, and a lower-volume open one. Far-future / far-past dates keep the test
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# independent of the real clock.
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_SEARCH = {
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"events": [
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{
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"markets": [
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_market("Open big?", 0.76, volume=5_000_000, end_date="2030-12-31T00:00:00Z", wk=-0.045),
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_market("Resolved already?", 1.0, volume=9_000_000, end_date="2030-12-31T00:00:00Z", closed=True),
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_market("Past event?", 0.5, volume=8_000_000, end_date="2020-01-01T00:00:00Z"),
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_market("Open small?", 0.30, volume=1_000, end_date="2030-06-30T00:00:00Z"),
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]
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}
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]
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}
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@pytest.mark.unit
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class PolymarketFilterTests(unittest.TestCase):
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def test_closed_and_past_markets_are_excluded(self):
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with mock.patch.object(polymarket, "_request", return_value=_SEARCH):
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out = polymarket.get_prediction_markets("anything", limit=10)
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self.assertIn("Open big?", out)
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self.assertIn("Open small?", out)
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self.assertNotIn("Resolved already?", out) # closed
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self.assertNotIn("Past event?", out) # endDate in the past
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def test_ranked_by_volume(self):
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with mock.patch.object(polymarket, "_request", return_value=_SEARCH):
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out = polymarket.get_prediction_markets("anything", limit=10)
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self.assertLess(out.index("Open big?"), out.index("Open small?"))
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def test_limit_caps_results(self):
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with mock.patch.object(polymarket, "_request", return_value=_SEARCH):
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out = polymarket.get_prediction_markets("anything", limit=1)
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self.assertIn("Open big?", out)
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self.assertNotIn("Open small?", out)
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@pytest.mark.unit
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class PolymarketFormatTests(unittest.TestCase):
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def test_probability_volume_and_weekly_change_render(self):
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with mock.patch.object(polymarket, "_request", return_value=_SEARCH):
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out = polymarket.get_prediction_markets("anything", limit=10)
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self.assertIn("Yes 76%", out)
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self.assertIn("$5,000,000 volume", out)
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self.assertIn("resolves 2030-12-31", out)
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self.assertIn("1-week -4.5pp", out) # -0.045 -> -4.5pp
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def test_weekly_change_omitted_when_absent(self):
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# "Open small?" has wk=None -> no 1-week clause on its line.
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with mock.patch.object(polymarket, "_request", return_value=_SEARCH):
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out = polymarket.get_prediction_markets("anything", limit=10)
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small_line = next(ln for ln in out.splitlines() if "Open small?" in ln)
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self.assertNotIn("1-week", small_line)
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def test_no_matches_reports_clearly(self):
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with mock.patch.object(polymarket, "_request", return_value={"events": []}):
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out = polymarket.get_prediction_markets("obscure ticker", limit=6)
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self.assertIn("No open prediction markets", out)
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@pytest.mark.unit
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class PolymarketResilienceTests(unittest.TestCase):
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def test_network_error_degrades_gracefully(self):
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# An external-service hiccup must not raise into the analyst.
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with mock.patch.object(
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polymarket, "_request", side_effect=requests.RequestException("boom")
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):
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out = polymarket.get_prediction_markets("Fed rate cut")
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self.assertIn("unavailable", out.lower())
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self.assertIn("Fed rate cut", out)
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@pytest.mark.unit
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class PolymarketRoutingTests(unittest.TestCase):
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def setUp(self):
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config_module._config = copy.deepcopy(default_config.DEFAULT_CONFIG)
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def tearDown(self):
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config_module._config = copy.deepcopy(default_config.DEFAULT_CONFIG)
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def test_category_routes_to_polymarket(self):
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self.assertEqual(
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interface.get_category_for_method("get_prediction_markets"),
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"prediction_markets",
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)
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set_config({"data_vendors": {"prediction_markets": "polymarket"}})
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with mock.patch.dict(
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interface.VENDOR_METHODS,
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{"get_prediction_markets": {"polymarket": lambda *a, **k: "POLY_OK"}},
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clear=False,
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):
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out = interface.route_to_vendor("get_prediction_markets", "fed", 5)
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self.assertEqual(out, "POLY_OK")
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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unittest.main()
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